BRCM reversal near

BRCM has been manipulated by the wall st guys even after coming up with excellent earnings and great guidance. I strongly beleive that BRCM will fetch good return for the money in the long run. Technically speaking, the stock is at or very near to closing the gap recorded during the earlier result in January. I am positive that there will be an oversold bounce very soon and a reversal.

Happy trading.

CMED Jumps

It was a handsome 16% jump for the chinese medical equipment maker, CMED. The message board (MB) on Yahoo was full of bulls. There are handful of them who are extremely positive on CMED. Even after the stock took a beating from 31 to 22, they were defiantly stubborn on their decision of staying 'long'. I guess their patience has paid off. BTW, I should add that I admired the sincerety and honesty displayed by Saleem in the message board. He has a big fan following...I am one too. I have seen MBs full of crap and foul language but this one is quite different ..atleast for the messages that revolve around Saleem.

The stock jumped today on optimistic earnings review.

I personally have been following this stock and its MB since Cramer highlighted it in his programme on cnbc. He was suggesting investors to 'BUY' after a pull back from 45 to 26..and what with secondary offering being offered at 25.50. His reasoning was the stock had pulled back because of the secondary. The stock did rally to 31 before it resumed the downward journey. Surprisingly, Cramer turned bearish AFTER this slide and his reasoning was that the stock price fell below the secondary. In the message boards, I noticed Cramer bashing... 'big time' for doing a 'Flip Flop'. Now that the stock has moved higher...what remains to be seen is its future action.

BTW...Saleem believes that the party is just getting started.

Caution on MRVL

MRVL came down on more than the regular volume and is now on the 20 day EMA. Although there is no questions about the fundamentals of the company, a big drop like this (violating the 50 day SMA on its way down) coupled with factors like high oil prices and soaring Gold prices gives us the impetus to consider our position. Monday will be an interesting day. Today action can also be attributed to options expiration.

All said, if the same negative sentiments continues - with fears about higher oil and gold prices, one has to wait to see if its earlier support of 54 can still act as support.

Have a good weekend.

BRCM's surprising behavior

On earnings day, the analysts set the bar on a few things (current revenue/EPS and next quater's revenue/EPS). Usually when the stocks clear the bar, they pop up anywhere between 5-10% depending on the news. This is exactly what happened to BRCM yesterday when they announced their 1st Quater result. As expected, the stock was trading up 5% during after hours on Apr 20 and you would have expected to see the same pop the next morning if not more. Guess what..! After that good night sleep, I was in for a surprise. The stock was trading at almost the same price as the day before - as if the earnings report hasnt come out.

I was wondering what could have caused this. It was Options expiration day and the money managers wanted to keep it below $45 so that the regular investor's calls/puts would go worthless. What a cheap play. To top this, some unknown analyst has downgraded BRCM. One of my friend, after experiencing this action sold his holdings in BRCM and moved on to GOOG. Like Broadcom, Google had just announced blockbuster earnings and was up 7%+. And what do you think is going to happen with Google. There is a gap between 440 and 420 which needs to be filled. If my analysis is right, I think Google will visit 420 before inching higher.

That said, I will have to wait and watch how it performs next week.

EBAY's results unwelcome

Without going into the fuzzy math, I realize (after reading many articles about its earnings report) that their results matched the average wall st. expectations but their expenses shot up. This company is making significant investment in China, skype - its latest high profile acquisition and a few other ventures that might provide handsome returns in the coming years. I agree that in order to earn more you need to spend(read invest) more (atleast initially..) until you can get the venture running. This is what is happening to EBAY at this moment. Until then, the investors feel that they are not getting the best bang for their buck and are shying away. I am sure the very same people that are moving out will return to this company when they see good returns for the money they invest. Until then...its wait and wach on EBAY.

Apple Computer profit rises 41%

By Rex Crum
Last Update: 4:37 PM ET Apr 19, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Apple Computer Inc. on Wednesday reported a second-quarter profit of $410 million, or 47 cents a share, compared to $290 million, or 34 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue climbed about 35% to $4.36 billion from $3.24 billion a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call forecast Apple 43 cents a share on revenue of $4.52 billion.

Refer my earlier blog suggesting a 'BUY'

EBAY clears 50 day SMA

Ebay is due to report after hours today. If we were to go by the market sentiment, I think EBAY's result would be welcomed by wall st. The downtrend was cleared in late March and today it has cleared the 50 day SMA in more than average volume...thanks to good earning report from YHOO yesterday.

The pattern also resembles a reverse head and shoulder.

Revisiting AAPL

In my earlier blog about AAPL, I had mentioned that it was at a good buy point. Although it gave up almost $1.60 the following trading day, it recovered most of its loss today with a greater volume than the down day. I still feel that AAPL is on its way up.

So what could be the reason behind the drop?
Apart from the regular market moving factors like Iran, Oil & Rate fears, I think the Wall St guys wanted the April options to go worthless by bringing it below 65 strike price.

MRVL has upside potential

I believe that owning a stock should not be based on fundamentals alone. Technicals help you identify good 'buy' points. Having said that, I think MRVL is close to one. The 54 area acted as support. After consolidating for couple of weeks, it went up in a volume of 8.5 M shares followed by another up day with even higher volume..11+ million thereby breaking the 2 month downtrend. After testing the 50 day SMA (coinciding with Dec highs) and a subsequent pullback, I think its poised to go higher.

Earnings season

The earnings season for the tech heavyweigts starts today and will continue for 10 days. By then most of the big tech companies would have reported their earnings. The companies that I am currently following include AAPL, BRCM, MRVL, EBAY and QCOM. I feel that the stock price of all these companies have an upside potential. I plan on elaborating on them shortly..so watch out for this space. What effect will the rising crude and commodity prices have on the stock prices. I am telling ya...once there is some dialogue on the Iran nuke issue, I am sure the crude and commodity prices will take a break and market will get to focus on the earnings and growth.

Good luck

Top 25 + 2 Mutual Funds

This is a good article that lists top 25 mutual fund.
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/bestfund06_article1.html

Here are my top picks. My selection is based on Funds with "No load", low expense ratio, great performance and yet 'Open' to new investors.
PENNX
PRWCX (Never lost money in the past 10 years...an acheivement by itself considering the 2000-2001 crash)

AAPL is a 'BUY'

I think it is time to buy AAPL (if you have not already done so). Here are the reasons.

AAPL is a great company with great products..we all know that. After a big run up, it was time for a correction. The 200 day SMA offered support at 58 and we witnessed the stock jump on huge volume therefore signaling the reversal. After few days of consolidation, it again jumped 10% and 7% on double the average volume to clear the 50 day SMA. Now, after an expected pull back, it is bound to go higher with 50 day SMA and 20 day EMA offering support.

Dear Reader

Investors,

I am no Warren Buffet but I am not new to investing either. Like most of you, I have been through the ups and downs of the stock market....and after all these years, I have realized that investing is not a simple deal. After all you are dealing with your hard earned money, investing with an idea of making some money....you dont want to lose your money ..do you? Atleast we don't wish to.! I would like to share my investing ideas, as my blog name suggests, and see where I go with this. I'll try to be honest in sharing my thoughts.

Good luck to you all